2009 Gubernatorial Elections May be a Good Barometer for 2010

On November 3rd, the state of New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Virginia will vote for their next governor. While each state has their unique differences, the outcomes of these elections could be viewed as gauge of the mood of the electorate toward the Republican and Democratic Party.

In the case of New Jersey, Democratic Governor John Corzine is seeking re-election. Corzine, former Goldman Saks CEO and US Senator, has gotten his way back into the race with help from national Democratic figures like President Clinton and President Obama. According to a RealClearPolitics polling average, he is running almost even (+0.1%) with Republican challenger Chris Christie. Christie is running on a fiscally conservative platform of lowering taxes, cutting spending and reforming regulation; Corzine is running on his record according to his website, "a fiscally responsible, progressive agenda."

In Virginia, Republican candidate Bob McDonnell has a significant advantage over Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds (+10.9 according to RCP Average). If McDonnell wins, he will be the break the 8 year trend of Democrat Governors (VA is the only state that does not allow governors to hold consecutive terms) and perhaps put the breaks on the state's trend toward the Democratic Party. In 2008, Barack Obama was the first Democratic Presidential candidate to win the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Virginia's shift the the left in recent years has most everything to do with the growth of the DC suburbs in the northern part of the state; most of the state state is culturally Southern and politically conservative.

Not only will next week's elections be important for the citizens of New Jersey and Virginia, but these elections will also have an impact of the direction of the country going into the 2010 mid-term election. The 2009 election can also be seen as a referendum on Obama's first year in office. Republican victories in these two state would suggest that Obama's popularity has significantly shrunk since winning them both in the 2008 election. This would be particularly true in deep blue New Jersey, but also in Virginia, where the Democrats have increased their strength in recent years. President Obama has been on the campaign trail for both candidates and the President's ties to each can be seen as both a blessing and curse.

In Virginia, Deeds has been in conflict with the White House and the DNC over political strategy, according a Washington Post report. Candidate Ceigh Deeds has had President Obama come in to campaign on his behalf, but has also suggested he would have his state opt-out of health care legislation that includes the "public option," a centerpiece of Democratic legislation. Deeds mixed signals on the campaign trail reflect the difficult position he faces a Democrat running in a "purple state" with a liberal Democratic President in office. Virginia's current Governor Tom Kaine (DNC Chairman) and previous Governor Mark Warner, both ran to the center and were elected during the Bush years. Virginia also elected Republican governors during the Clinton years (Allen and Gilmore) and may just be a state that has developed a unique electoral pattern.

In New Jersey, the support of President Obama may have boosted the support for Corzine up to a competitive level. Corzine and Christie are engaged in a highly competitive and negative campaign, each accusing the other of corruption, bribery and coercive tactics of operation. Obama won New Jersey with 57% of the vote in 2008 and according to a Time article his the Garden State was in effort to "rub off some of his political magic" on Governor Corzine.

The real question will be, how much "political magic" does President Obama have? Republican victories in both states may carry some serious momentum into the the 2010 mid-terms and will most certainly be viewed as a reflection on President Obama and the Democratic Congress. Perhaps next week will be a good barometer of what the American electorate is thinking.